Fake News: Canon and Nikon to lose 50% of marketshare

Okay I had to weigh in on this.

I had to choke a bit when reading the original Fujirumors article, and for the longest of times didn't want to weigh on what is clearly is some seriously misguided hyperbole on so many fronts.

Thom of sansmirror weighed in so after some thought I wanted to give my comments.  Thom summed it up nicely by stating;

I call hogwash. Someone had a fantasy dream and decided to see if they could get others to believe it was predictive. 

For Canon and Nikon to lose 50% of their marketshare over the next 3 years would be a significant disruption in the market. If we think back to film days, Canon and Nikon were both used of having the smaller competitors around, but after Minolta faded after a fast start with their AF system, it was a two horse race.

Canon is predicting sales of 5.5 million ILC's in 2018, that would mean they at they would suffer through a disastrous next two years that would see them sitting at 2.75 million ILC's in 2021 and most likely sitting at #2 in DLSR marketshare, or Nikon essentially disappearing alltogether.  The odds of that happening are about the same as me winning the next powerball.  Canon has had 3 straight years of 5.5 million ILC sales and they are predicting a forth.  The only consistent company in the entire market is Canon.

Is the DSLR dead because Canon and NIkon come out with mirrorless full frame?  Not in the least. At least with Canon, we are most assured that Canon will simply augment it's DSLR lineup with mirrorless ILC's and let the chips fall where they may as far as what the consumer wishes to buy. It's what they are doing with the EOS-M and will most likely continue to do so with a full frame mirrorless as well.

There's many things to shake out over the next 3 years, however, there's probably more of a chance that in three years time we see Canon's marketshare increasing along with Nikon's then we ever would see them decreasing.  The smaller mirrorless and the more vocal minority of camera users that are using or wanting mirrorless are forgetting that there are vast ecosystems built up around DSLR cameras.  it will take more than a few years to drastically change the market, if it ever does.